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According to the monitoring of China's live pig warning network, the national pork price has broken through 17 yuan/kg since December 30 bottoming out to 16.09 yuan/kg, to 17.08 yuan/kg, and has rebounded by nearly 1 yuan/kg in 20 days. . "As the double-section approaches, the demand for terminals continues to grow, while the supply of live pigs has limited growth. The price of pigs will continue to increase recently. The average national slaughter hog price before the Spring Festival is expected to hit 18 yuan/kg. The stage high may be Appeared around mid-January, said Feng Yonghui, chief consultant of China Live Pig Warning Network.
Li Guoxiang from the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told the Daily Economic News (microblogging) reporter that compared to previous years, due to the shortened span of New Year's Day and the Spring Festival this year, the previous three-month consumer peak season was reduced to two. At around the same time, affected by seasonal influence, agricultural prices will continue to rise in the short term. Li Guoxiang believes that due to the 30% share of CPI in edible agricultural products, the upward trend this month will make the December CPI face a recovery test.
“The sharp drop in CPI for two consecutive months shows that inflation has entered a downward channel, but the short-term seasonal price increase will lead to a slowdown in the CPI in the next two months.†Zhang Sen, a macro analyst at China Chuang Securities, expects the food chain CPI to rise by about 1 in December. %, a significant rebound from November. However, Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, believes that although winter and holiday demand factors will temporarily push up food prices, the major trend of continuous CPI decline will not change. "The CPI will continue to fall and it will bottom out in the summer of 2012."
Agricultural prices rise again in December CPI or rebound
In December, the price of domestic edible agricultural products began to rise continuously due to seasonal factors. Xinhua News Agency's national agricultural product and agricultural product price system monitoring data show that compared with the previous day, agricultural products continued to rise on December 22, with all meat prices rising and vegetable prices continuing the recent gains. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, as of last week (December 12-18), the price of edible agricultural products in the country rose for 4 consecutive weeks, and the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables rose for 6 consecutive weeks.