In the past few weeks, rumors about GlaxoSmithKline becoming Pfizer's acquisition target have been rampant, but this time British traders are targeting another potential deal: Johnson & Johnson or Roche will likely acquire GSK instead of Pfizer.

In the Daily Mail report, traders estimate that a typical pharmaceutical company can be acquired for 1900 pence per share. This single-price price can make GSK's total valuation exceed 92 billion euros ($143 billion), but GSK's closing price on Monday is 1351 pence per share.

The root of the rumor that has been acquired is that GlaxoSmithKline’s share price has been falling. In mid-April, GSK’s stock price is still at 1,642 pence, and it is now catching up with the lowest point in January this year – 1327 pence. This is a far cry from the price of 1700+ per share two years ago.

A trader said that people are rushing because of this price. A series of major pharmaceutical companies, such as the Actavis brand, were acquired by Allergan, and a series of asset swaps worth $22 billion from Glaxo and Novartis.

So is it reasonable that GSK will be acquired by Johnson or Roche? It may seem that Johnson & Johnson/Roche's acquisition of GSK is not as attractive as Pfizer's acquisition of GSK, but in fact, the joint venture between GSK and Novartis will help Johnson & Johnson's huge OTC and consumer business, and Johnson & Johnson is not involved in the vaccine business, and its prescription drugs also lack breathing. Products in the field, and GSK recently focused on these. Maybe Johnson & Johnson will be interested in this market? Um... maybe.

Looking at Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical company has never been passionate about diversified markets other than consumer health or diagnostic products. However, his fellow rival, Novartis, has a roadmap in the field of eye care, vaccines and over-the-counter medicines. Very long. Roche insists on the field of diagnosis, and its diagnostic department has even begun to develop targeted drugs using biomarkers and companion diagnostics. In order to be as deep as possible in the field of diagnosis, Roche has acquired Genentech, and since then, Roche has been buying biotech companies, including the acquisition of InterMune for $8.3 billion last year.

In contrast, Pfizer, they already have vaccines and consumer care businesses. A bank analyst estimated that the best price for a transaction between Pfizer and GSK was 1924 pence, higher than the current speculative price.

There are too many reasons for not optimistic about Pfizer. Last year, I spent so much energy and couldn't get AstraZeneca. As analysts say, perhaps a small acquisition of Shire or Perrigo would be a better choice.

For GSK's shareholders, "strong alliance" is likely to be just wishful thinking. CEO Andrew Witty's plan is to take it slowly, but he is better to compare the speed of his company's stock price decline.

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